Quad-core ARM and 2010 predictions

More than 1GHz per core, and now ARM has two and four core options. This is tracking my predictions from a few years ago quite well. The google Nexus One has a 1GHz ARM CPU with 512MB RAM. I expect that the rumored Apple tablet or iSlate is more likely to be a big iPhone than a small MacBook, so it would make sense for it to use a multi-core ARM and a Gigabyte or so of memory. This gives vendors a nice way to stratify their product, for example, Apple could support multi-core and background/multiple running apps in iPhone OS 4, release a two-core tablet now, then upgrade the iPhone to have a two core high end option in the summer, and push the tablet to have a four core high end option. If Apple doesn't, then the Android vendors will.

My other prediction for 2010 (that I made in early 2008) was that as ARM goes up market, Intel will come down-market to lower power consumption. So later in 2010 we may see Android based tablets and phones that use Intel Atom variants going head to head with ARM, as well as running more generic laptop derived operating systems.

http://www.marvell.com/armada/quadruple_core_arm_instruction_set/release/1363/

My millicomputing update ignite talk wasn't showing any text on the slides on slideshare, so I just re-loaded it.

Augmented reality for the iPhone

from Metaio just a demo, but heading in an interesting direction...

MIT Medialab's Sixth Sense

This is exactly the kind of user interface development that I've been looking forward to as part of my Millicomputing meme. I hope it inspires some products soon...

Slides - Usenix 08 - Invited Paper on Millicomputing - Boston June 25

| View | Upload your own

Computerworld and others on Millicomputing

Nice writeup of my Usenix talk by By Sharon Machlis, Computerworld June 25, 2008

Infoworld copy.

Version at PC World. There were several blogs also copying this story.

From some comments it appears that some people didn't get that I was talking about using "e-sunglasses" head mounted video displays rather than a big laptop screen while on the move.

eComm08 Millicomputing Talk on Video

Video of my talk at eComm08, along with about 40 other talks...

BIL Talk: Millicomputing - The future in your pocket

I've written a less technical but more provocative overview of where Millicomputing could go in the mobile space and posted slides as html and slides as pdf.

These will be presented at some point over the coming weekend at the BIL un-conference.

Millicomputing Applications - ETL

Millicomputers have a very different balance of compute/memory/network/io resources compared to more conventional architectures. They are lower in absolute terms for compute/memory/network, but much higher for random access io.

The performance per watt and the price/performance are very competitive for compute/memory/network, as long as applications can be run at a smaller "grain size". However for io, the aggregate performance of a large number of direct attached flash devices is amazing.

One possible application is from the data warehousing space. Known as ETL, this is the Extract Transform and Load step that pulls data from online transaction processing systems, such as the collection of database back-ends for a web site, and puts it into a form that can be queried to answer questions about the business. There has been a lot of work put into making the ETL processes into decomposable parallel applications, and there is an open source ETL implementation in Java called KETL. KETL was originally written several years ago, when the typical systems of the day were similar in capacity to the millicomputers we have today, so I'm hopeful that the grain size will fit.

KETL is io intensive and it also supports running on a cluster of networked computers, so overall it looks like a plausible fit for an enterprise millicomputer application.

The Future of Millicomputing

There is a gap between the performance and memory capacity of Millicomputers and mainstream CPUs, that gap is shrinking but how fast, and what are the next steps?

The base technology from ARM can be seen in their Cortex designs. These were disclosed in late 2005, but have yet to appear in actual products. The overall performance is around 3-4 times the performance of the current generation of ARM based devices.

Since Intel sold off their ARM based CPU business to Marvell, it leaves them clear to move their core 32bit x86 platform architecture down into the millicomputing space.

So in the next few years, I expect to see x86 and ARM based system on a chip architectures with overlapping performance and power consumption characteristics in the millicomputing space.

Enterprise Millicluster System Specifications

The specifications below are very tentative, I have tried to be conservative, but this is a paper design at this point, and a real design could end up significantly more or less dense in terms of compute and power usage per rack unit (RU).

The Millicluster board I described is half the width of a typical enterprise motherboard. Its only 0.4" thick, so we can stack four of them high (4x0.4=1.6") in the 1.75" height of a 1U package.

Hence a standard 1U Enterprise Server Package contains Eight Milliclusters. This has a compute density of 112 OPiuM modules per RU, 4704 modules in a 42RU rack. The power consumption peaks under 160 Watts/RU, and idles at less than 24 Watts/RU. Maximum rating would be less than 6.7KW/Rack, which is quite reasonable. The CPU performance totals 60 GHz/RU, 2,520 GHz/Rack. There is 28 GBytes/RU of RAM, 1,172 GBytes/Rack.

The network has 8 Load balancer/bridge-routers per RU with 8 Gbits/RU module bandwidth on 16 redundant Gbit ports. An Ethernet switch could be added to the design to reduce the port count at a cost of a few watts and dollars. For storage a microSDHC flash memory socket at each module would hold a 2 GB microSD for very low cost, 4 GB for capacity, 8 GB in 2008.

There are many optional interfaces that could be used for specific applications. All modules include an ATA disk controller if needed, so each Millicluster could have connectors to support hard disks and DVD-ROM players. For graphics the i.MX31 modules include an OpenGL based 3D graphics accelerator and an LCD display driver with touch screen input. There is a camera input and video compression engine, with stereo audio and video playback. Modules also include multiple USB and serial interfaces.

What is a Millicomputer? Why talk about Millicomputing?

While researching devices for my home brew mobile phone, I've realized that the current generation of CPUs for mobile devices are actually seriously powerful, very low cost and use almost no power. The performance per watt and per dollar seems to be an order of magnitude better than the PC-class CPUs that are common in commodity servers nowadays. The absolute performance and memory capacity is lower, but is comparable to common PC hardware from a few years ago, and could be useful for more than running a high end phone or portable games machine. Devices such as the Marvel PXA270 and Freescale i.MX31 run at over 500MHz, some include floating point units, they support at least 128MB of RAM (a single chip), and a myriad of I/O interfaces, with Linux 2.6 support.

While the current mainstream CPUs were driven by the development of the home PC market, this generation is driven by the development of the mobile, battery powered device market, which is a very large. For example the worldwide cellphone market is something like a billion devices a year.

I think that there could be some interesting general purpose computer systems built from low power devices (CPUs that use less than one watt). I looked around but wasn't sure what to search for... I do know about the systems that are sold for embedded use, but they are typically configured using lower speed and lower memory options.

Does anyone know of vendors selling general purpose millicomputer based systems?

I need a name for this class of system, so I'm going to call them Millicomputers, and I'm going to explore this area in public on this blog, and using the principles of open hardware that we have adopted for the homebrew mobile phone club, I expect to help build some.

I originally asked this question on my main blog, and asked a lot of people in person, but didn't find a pre-existing name or any objections to this concept.